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Kris Kumar
Contributing Editor
Joined: 02 Jul 2003
Posts: 4437
Location: Rochester, NY, USA
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 Posted: Thu Jan 11, 2007 9:56 pm Post subject: |
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| Jerry Raia wrote: |
| I think this could be another Newton for Apple in a way. |
I agree that the iPhone and Newton have the same genes when it comes to limitations. But Apple has come a long way since the iPod revolution.
If RAZR can sell millions, so can this iPhone based on its looks and cool interface. Not everyone is looking for a smart phone.
The iPhone is the BMW version of the (T-Mobile) Sidekick.
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alese
Smartphone Pupil
Joined: 08 Dec 2005
Posts: 19
Location: Slovenia
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| Posted: Thu Jan 11, 2007 11:33 pm Post subject: |
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| Kris Kumar wrote: |
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If RAZR can sell millions, so can this iPhone based on its looks and cool interface. Not everyone is looking for a smart phone.
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Well, the RAZR didn't cost $600 even when it was new and without contract, iPone costs $600 with 2 year contract, so it's "normal" price would have to be somewhere around $800...
Yes RAZR sold on good looks, but I'm pretty sure it helped that it was/is really cheap if you buy it with a contract.
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Rocco Augusto
Contributing Editor
Joined: 28 May 2005
Posts: 1212
Location: Portland, OR
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| Posted: Fri Jan 12, 2007 12:16 am Post subject: |
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| alese wrote: |
Well, the RAZR didn't cost $600 even when it was new and without contract, iPone costs $600 with 2 year contract, so it's "normal" price would have to be somewhere around $800...
Yes RAZR sold on good looks, but I'm pretty sure it helped that it was/is really cheap if you buy it with a contract. |
Sadly the RAZR did cost a good $500-$600 when it first came out... except we couldn't sell one to save our life. We had one that sat in our inventory for almost 5 months until the first price cut came and the phone dropped down to $300. I'm sure Apple is planning on taking a page from the Motorola handbook by playing the same cards.
Here is how the whole iPhone story will go:
Make a phone that no one can afford, create contravery by stealing the name of another companys product (iPhone/Cisco.... a lawsuit gets you air time and therefore gets you in the heads of consumers), get/pay a bunch of news stations to highlight the story (not saying they did but companies have been known to do that in the past), get a few sitcoms to have their characters take it out and make a phone call (like Motorola did with both One Tree Hill and Bones) and then once the phone becomes a household name... drop the price and make billions. Its a plan that would make Dr. Evil proud.
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Smartphone Thoughts
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alese
Smartphone Pupil
Joined: 08 Dec 2005
Posts: 19
Location: Slovenia
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| Posted: Fri Jan 12, 2007 2:05 am Post subject: |
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| Rocco Augusto wrote: |
Sadly the RAZR did cost a good $500-$600 when it first came out... except we couldn't sell one to save our life. We had one that sat in our inventory for almost 5 months until the first price cut came and the phone dropped down to $300. I'm sure Apple is planning on taking a page from the Motorola handbook by playing the same cards.
Here is how the whole iPhone story will go:
Make a phone that no one can afford, create contravery by stealing the name of another companys product (iPhone/Cisco.... a lawsuit gets you air time and therefore gets you in the heads of consumers), get/pay a bunch of news stations to highlight the story (not saying they did but companies have been known to do that in the past), get a few sitcoms to have their characters take it out and make a phone call (like Motorola did with both One Tree Hill and Bones) and then once the phone becomes a household name... drop the price and make billions. Its a plan that would make Dr. Evil proud.
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Nice plan, I just don't think Apple is prepared to drop the price before the launch in order to sell the device.
Yes I know everybody is saying it's going to sell like hotcakes even at that price, but I really doubt that. It's going to sell well (HTC Universal also sold well at almost $1000) but not in millions as people expect...
If and when the price drops to something like below $300 then it will sell well, but I don't think Apple will make much (if any) money of it.
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juni
Smartphone Ponderer
Joined: 25 Dec 2005
Posts: 52
Location: Helsinki
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| Posted: Fri Jan 12, 2007 5:36 am Post subject: |
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...and if you want to have the "look", you can always do this:
(I made two versions of the homescreen, one for facade and fizztraveller and and another one which only uses free plugins - that is the one in the image). 
You can get it from my site - got to MS Smartphone homescreens and select iPhoneV2 - both versions are in the zip file .
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Kris Kumar
Contributing Editor
Joined: 02 Jul 2003
Posts: 4437
Location: Rochester, NY, USA
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| Posted: Fri Jan 12, 2007 6:13 am Post subject: |
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| juni wrote: |
| ...and if you want to have the "look", you can always do this: |
juni, awesome work.
I didn't like Apple's clean look home screen, I prefer to see my calendar and email count.
Anyway, how did you tweak the icon bar (I think that is what it is called? the one with radio and battery strength) at the top to be like the iPhone's? I thought that the icon bar was fixed?
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juni
Smartphone Ponderer
Joined: 25 Dec 2005
Posts: 52
Location: Helsinki
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| Posted: Fri Jan 12, 2007 6:21 am Post subject: |
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Using smartmonitor . You can always use the facade version:
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Kris Kumar
Contributing Editor
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Location: Rochester, NY, USA
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| Posted: Fri Jan 12, 2007 6:21 am Post subject: |
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| alese wrote: |
| Yes I know everybody is saying it's going to sell like hotcakes even at that price, but I really doubt that. |
I agree. I also doubt the sales to be high. And Apple is realistic about it. They are aiming at only 1% of the market by 2008. Long time.
But the media is going to give them free publicity. HTC Universal never got the attention from anyone beyond the geeks. Apple has already (six months ahead) made the iPhone the talk of the town.
I agree with Rocco, the lawsuit is an intentional publicity stunt. They will change the name to Apple Phone or something.
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alese
Smartphone Pupil
Joined: 08 Dec 2005
Posts: 19
Location: Slovenia
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| Posted: Fri Jan 12, 2007 8:16 am Post subject: |
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| Kris Kumar wrote: |
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But the media is going to give them free publicity. HTC Universal never got the attention from anyone beyond the geeks. Apple has already (six months ahead) made the iPhone the talk of the town.
I agree with Rocco, the lawsuit is an intentional publicity stunt. They will change the name to Apple Phone or something.
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No argument here. Apple allways excelled in marketing and this is no exception. I would even say that they are trying even more than usuall, since they are entering a very competitive and quite mature market.
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onlydarksets
Smartphone Intellectual
Joined: 19 May 2006
Posts: 169
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| Posted: Fri Jan 12, 2007 9:17 am Post subject: |
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| Kris Kumar wrote: |
| alese wrote: |
| Yes I know everybody is saying it's going to sell like hotcakes even at that price, but I really doubt that. |
I agree. I also doubt the sales to be high. And Apple is realistic about it. They are aiming at only 1% of the market by 2008. Long time.
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Apple's math skills are laughable. Jobs uses the total worldwide number of phones to claim that a high total volume requires only a trivial percent. 1% is nothing, right?
The problem is that the iPhone is limited to Cingular, and Cingular only has 60 million customers. 10 million phones is, thus, 17% market share (in terms of customers). That's assuming that Cingular sells 60 million phones EVERY YEAR, which is doubtful.
So Apple says, "1% is all we're talking about", but the reality is that they would need to capture 10-20 times that percentage to meet their sales goals, unless they roll out to other networks. They may do that, but they'll probably up their estimates when they do.
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