Smartphone Thoughts - Daily News, Views, Rants and Raves

"Despite intensifying competition and the loss of some high-profile licensees, the usage of Microsoft Corp.'s Windows Mobile operating system in smart phones will nearly triple from 2009 to 2013, allowing it to reclaim the No.-2 position in the global market, according to iSuppli Corp In 2013, 67.9 million smart phones will use the Windows Mobile operating system, up from 27.7 million in 2009. This will give Windows Mobile a 15.3 percent share of the global market in 2013, second only to the Symbian operating system, which will control 47.6 percent."

Analysts are a big like fortune tellers: no one ever goes back to check their track record to see how often they're wrong. iSupply is predicting that by 2013, Windows Mobile will control 15.3% of the global market share, second only to Symbian. Sound far-fetched? Maybe not - it's important to remember that on a world-wide scale, Apple's iPhone and RIM's Blackberry devices are still minuscule players compared to the global number of phones shipped. As a Windows Mobile enthusiast, it's easy for me to look at the current situation and think "Oh, that's it, Windows Mobile is doomed". Taking a step back and looking at the bigger picture, the reality is far different: the fancy smartphones we've been using for years are still only a blip on the world-wide market of cell phones. Most of the world doesn't yet own a smartphone, so there's a long way to go for all the big players.

"Just a few years ago, Palm OSruled the mobile landscape. Handspring, Qualcomm, and Samsung all brought out compelling smartphones with the easy-to-use PalmSource software. But in 2006, it's increasingly becoming a Windows Mobile world. Windows gadgets from Dell, HP, HTC, and even Palm flood wireless carriers' stores. The formidable PalmSource has been reduced to one smartphone, the Treo 650, and a handful of PDAs. In the fourth quarter of 2005, Microsoft licensees shipped 2.1 million Windows Mobile PDAs, almost double the number of Palm OS PDAs shipped that quarter, according to Gartner Dataquest. In-Stat principal analyst Bill Hughes sees Windows smartphone sales jumping to 6.7 million in 2006, with RIM and Palm at about 3.7 million each."

This article over at PC Mag has some pretty interesting numbers in it. It also goes on to talk about what Microsoft has done to go from last place to first and what the competitors didn't do that helped out Microsoft. Check it out and let us know your thoughts.

"Just a few years ago, Palm OSruled the mobile landscape. Handspring, Qualcomm, and Samsung all brought out compelling smartphones with the easy-to-use PalmSource software. But in 2006, it's increasingly becoming a Windows Mobile world. Windows gadgets from Dell, HP, HTC, and even Palm flood wireless carriers' stores. The formidable PalmSource has been reduced to one smartphone, the Treo 650, and a handful of PDAs."

This is a short little write up, but it does provide some really good information and insight into the Windows Mobile market. For instance, I didn't realize that Microsoft's licensees shipped 2.1 million Windows Mobile devices in the forth quarter of 2005. That's pretty impressive considering how small things were not that long ago. :mrgreen:

"I think tech industry forecasts are worthless. Completely worthless. That may sound harsh, but think about it for a minute � can you reliably predict the future? Can anyone you know do it? If anyone could predict the future, don't you think they'd get rich off the stock market rather than working at an analysis company? I once asked a very senior manager at one of the biggest tech analysis firms how they created their forecasts. He laughed. "The process involved pizza, beer, and a dart board." Here's an example of how bad tech forecasts can be: In the handheld market, the big analysis firms once predicted that handheld sales would be 60 million units a year by now. Instead they're 20 million. That's a margin of error of about 200%. If NASA forecasted that badly, Neil Armstrong would have landed in Arkansas."

Bring on the Silly Season! :lol: I always like reading the spin that comes along with the numbers. It doesn't help that every analyst categorizes devices differently to help make their points. If you've got some free time, give Micheal Mace's article a read and you'll be ready to cut through those numbers when they hit the street. :D

"Palm OS losing grip on the enterprise"; "Nokia assumes top position in 3G handsets"; "Time Warner invests in mobile games" - Analysts are constantly making their predictions on what shape the market will take in the future. Sometimes, trying to stay on top of it all just makes my head spin and it's only going to get worse as this market continues to grow. Thankfully, there's a new blog on the scene that is focused on tracking the analysts comments on mobile devices, content, and services - Mobile Analyst Watch. If you're interested in what the analysts talking about, this site might be of interest to you. :)

This article specifically discusses Symbian 60, but applies equally to Windows Mobile devices. A consulting firm, Mako Analysis, has released a report highlighting the potential revenue risk of selling handsets that allow users to *gasp* install software themselves!

"Savvy users can use devices running on Symbian's Series 60 operating system (OS) to completely bypass a range of services that are normally charged for by their mobile operator, the UK-based consultancy warned on Monday. While the threat is currently minimal, the loophole has the potential to cause major headaches for operators. "

It seems that Mako Analysis is concerned that kids will install their very own MP3 players and then put music and ring tones on their phones without the kind - and expensive - intervention of the carrier. This is one of the most short-sighted things I've read in a while. While Mako Analysis was having this Chicken Little moment over potentially lost revenue from MP3 revenues, I wonder if they considered that users installing applications could actually increase revenue? Applications are increasingly taking advantage of the network connection to enrich the user experience. I'm writing a review of an application from Handmark that goes out and brings all sorts of data down to the phone. There are also games and media players that can take advantage of the network connection. All that data traffic will generate at least a couple of dollars for the carriers.

Instead of wringing their hands about "loopholes," Mako Analysis ought to do something productive. Like telling carriers how they can create an environment friendly to users who want to move a lot of data over their networks, and how they can make money doing that.